Bitcoin forecasts are “repricing quickly,” according to Skew, while an analyst highlights the “organic” nature of the current price spike.
Bitcoin (BTC) is 7% likely to break its record of $20,000 by the end of this year, the data show.
According to data from the on-chain Skew analytical feature, as of October 22, Bitcoin Loophole options were moving in favor of higher prices continuing into 2020.
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BTC Forecasts are “changing prices fast
To date, the probability of BTC/USD being $20,000 or more as of December 31, 2020 was 7%, with 11% to $18,000.
In March 2021, more forecasts said that Bitcoin would have recovered $20,000 (14%), while the figure for June 2021 was 18%.
In social media, Skew said probability data were “repriced quickly” after Bitcoin reached $13,200.
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Bitcoin option price probability chart.
As reported by the Cointelegraph, the mood among institutional investors remains biased to the positive side, despite the higher price levels. The latest CME Group trader commitments (TOC) report, for example, showed that institutions were overbought rather than sold at BTC.
On Wednesday, statistician Willy Woo noted that huge amounts of liquidity were removed from the speculative arenas by investors interested in storing currencies over the long term. Woo described the event, which involved 250,000 BTC ($3.24 billion), as “the mother of all holes.
“Where did this pump come from? 250,000 currencies (over $2 billion USD) were taken from the speculative stock in spot exchanges for HODL,” he tweeted.
“That’s where the supply comes from so far, and was the mother of all the excavations, the previous bull races were moved by small idle shells.
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An “organic” shot
The organic nature of the behavior that led to the price increase did not go unnoticed. For Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole digital assets manager, this was a unique phenomenon in the 12 years of Bitcoin’s life.
“This pump was activated organically. There is almost no resistance in the order book,” he tweeted on Thursday.
“Yes, things can change quickly, it’s the cryptomoedas. But this is a very healthy movement. Something we’ve never seen before in over $12,000 in #Bitcoin. ”
However, the volume of Bitcoin futures trading has also almost tripled in the last two days, compared to the levels seen earlier this month, when the price of Bitcoin exceeded $12,000.